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1.
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Organizations are continuously endeavoring to provide a healthy work environment without any incident, by Health, Safety, and Environment...  相似文献   
2.
Methods to simulate facies (or categorical) fields are numerous. However, calibration of simulated facies fields to large-scale or dynamic data still remains an important challenge due to the discrete nature of the fields, the non-linearity of the response with respect to the facies fields, and the non-derivability of the objective function used in calibration. A new gradual deformation method (GDM) is presented and tested for the calibration of facies realizations obtained by patch-multipoint simulation (MPS). The proposed method borrows ideas from pluriGaussian simulation, evolutionary algorithms, and GDM. Various test cases are considered: proportion maps, section of seismic amplitudes, inlet to outlet travel time along the shortest path, and water-cut curves obtained with a flow simulator. Both conditional/unconditional MPS simulations and 2D/3D problems are considered. In all studied test cases, the new GDM approach has provided excellent calibration to the target variables. The method is general as it can be used in conjunction with any facies simulator.  相似文献   
3.
In this paper,dynamic simulation of a beam-like structure with a transverse open crack subjected to a random moving mass oscillator is investigated.The simultaneous effect of a crack and a random oscillator has not been addressed up to now.The crack in the beam at different locations and with different depths is considered as one group of damage,each as an individual imperfection.In addition,bearing immobility is considered as another type of problem in the beam.Mass, stiffness,damping and velocity of th...  相似文献   
4.
Variogram-based methods are not capable of capturing high (>2) order statistics since the variogram measures the relationship between two points at a time only. Multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) has brought new insights into many geological modeling problems. The application of MPS methods has been well documented in realizing complex geological patterns. These methods have often been used in reservoir characterization since their advent in recent decades. The frequent non-linear behaviors of geologic continuity are not limited to reservoirs, but mineral deposits bear complicated formations in many cases. Relying on the power of MPS methods and considering the complexity of geological scenarios in mineral deposits, we have applied MPS in the modeling of mineral deposits. A training image (TI) is produced using geological data from upper horizons of a porphyry copper ore deposit which have been mined out during the previous mining operations. In this study, the SNESIM algorithm has been used. A number of realizations are produced using this multiple-point geostatistical method. Extensive validation steps are performed considering the TI as the reference model. These validations first show that the TI is representative for the domain under study and also illustrates some degrees of similarity between the TI and the realizations. Despite simplifications made to the problem, the application of MPS in mineral deposit modeling still faces many challenges.  相似文献   
5.
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - This study presents a new approach of generating a set of alternative training images (ATI) to use in patch-based multiple-point simulation....  相似文献   
6.
In recent decades, the cellular automata model, among the urban development prediction models, has been applied considerably. Studies show that the output of conventional cellular automata models is sensitive to cell size and neighborhood structure, and varies with changes in the size of these parameters. To solve this problem, vector-based cellular automata models have been introduced which have overcome the mentioned limitations and presented better results. The aim of this study was to present a parcel-based cellular automata (ParCA) model for simulating urban growth under planning policies. In this model, undeveloped areas are first subdivided into smaller parcels, based on some geometric parameters; then, neighborhood effect of parcels is defined in a radial structure, based on a weighted function of distance, area, land-use, and service level of irregular cadastral parcels. After that, neighborhood effect is evaluated using three components, including compactness, dependency and compatibility. The presented model was implemented and analyzed using data from municipal region 22 of Tehran. The obtained results indicated the high ability of ParCA model in allocating various land-uses to parcels in the appropriateness of the layout of different land-uses. This model can be used in decision-making and urban land-use planning activities, since it provides the possibility of allocating different urban land-use types and assessing different urban-growth scenarios.  相似文献   
7.
ABSTRACT

The problem of estimation of suspended load carried by a river is an important topic for many water resources projects. Conventional estimation methods are based on the assumption of exact observations. In practice, however, a major source of natural uncertainty is due to imprecise measurements and/or imprecise relationships between variables. In this paper, using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) technique, a novel fuzzy regression model for imprecise response and crisp explanatory variables is presented. The investigated fuzzy regression model is applied to forecast suspended load by discharge based on two real-world datasets. The accuracy of the proposed method is compared with two well-known parametric fuzzy regression models, namely, the fuzzy least-absolutes model and the fuzzy least-squares model. The comparison results reveal that the MARS-fuzzy regression model performs better than the other models in suspended load estimation for the particular datasets. This comparison is done based on four goodness-of-fit criteria: the criterion based on similarity measure, the criterion based on absolute errors and the two objective functions of the fuzzy least-absolutes model and the fuzzy least-squares model. The proposed model is general and can be used for modelling natural phenomena whose available observations are reported as imprecise rather than crisp.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Aksoy  相似文献   
8.
It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.  相似文献   
9.
In Central Iran, the mixed siliciclastic?carbonate Nakhlak Group of Triassic age is commonly seen to have a Cimmerian affinity, although it shows considerable resemblances with the Triassic Aghdarband Group in far northeastern Iran, east of Kopeh-Dagh area, with Eurasian affinity. The Nakhlak Group is composed of the Alam (Late Olenekian?Anisian), Baqoroq (Late Anisian??Early Ladinian), and Ashin (Ladinian??Early Carnian) formations consisting mainly of volcanoclastic sandstone and shale and fossiliferous limestone. The Baqoroq Formation contains also metamorphic detritus. Sandstone petrofacies reflect the detrital evolution from active volcanism to growing orogen and again active volcanism. Textural and modal analyses of volcanic lithic fragments from the Alam Formation reflect the eruption style and magma composition of a felsic to intermediate syn-sedimentary arc activity. The detrital modes of the Baqoroq Formation sediments suggest a recycled orogenic source followed by arc activity in a remnant fore-arc basin. The sandstone samples from the Ashin Formation demonstrate a continuity of felsic to intermediate arc activity. Major and trace element concentrations of the Nakhlak Group clastic samples support sediment supply from first-cycle material and felsic magmatic arc input. The enrichment in LREE, the negative Eu anomalies, and the flat HREE patterns indicate origination from the old upper continental crust and young arc material. The chemical index of alteration (CIA ~51–70 for sandstone and 64–76 for shale samples) indicates medium degrees of chemical weathering at the source. Petrographical and geochemical evidence together with facies analysis constructed the following depositional conditions for the Nakhlak Group sediments: In the Olenekian, a fore-arc shallow to deep marine depositional basin developed that later was filled by recycled and arc-related detritus and changed into a continental basin in the Anisian. Ladinian extension let to a deepening of the basin. With respect to the similarities between the Nakhlak and Aghdarband (NE Iran) groups and unusual present-day position of the Nakhlak Group with no stratigraphic connection to the surrounding area, the development of first a fore-arc basin and later change into a back-arc depositional basin in close relation with the Aghdarband basin at the southern Eurasian active margin in the Triassic are here proposed. Understanding the basin development recorded in the Nakhlak Group provides constraints on the closure history of Palaeotethys and of the tectonic evolution of early Mesozoic basins at the southern Eurasian margin before the Cimmerian Orogeny.  相似文献   
10.
Identifying reservoir electrofacies has an important role in determining hydrocarbon bearing intervals. In this study, electrofacies of the Kockatea Formation in the Perth Basin were determined via cluster analysis. In this method, distance data were initially calculated and then connected spatially by using a linkage function. The dendrogram function was used to extract the cluster tree for formations over the study area. Input logs were sonic log (DT), gamma ray log (GR), resistivity log (IND), and spontaneous potential (SP). A total of 30 reservoir electrofacies were identified within this formation. Integrated geochemical and petrophysics data showed that zones with electrofacies 3, 4, 9, and 10 have potential for shale gas production. In addition, the results showed that cluster analysis is a precise, rapid, and cost-effective method for zoning reservoirs and determining electrofacies in hydrocarbon reservoirs.  相似文献   
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